mether's Fedora Blog

Random thoughts, usually on Fedora

Musings on Fedora’s growth

Fedora on distrowatch now holds the second rank. This is not just a bump up due to a new release. The default stat is for the last six months. While distrowatch ranking is just the number of people visiting the profile page of a distribution and not by itself a very meaningful stat, it shows a higher amount of interest on the distribution from users. Combining that with Fedora’s own statistics ,it shows a growth pattern. Any insights on what would be causing this? Has your interests in Fedora grown recently? If so, why?

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Written by mether

June 26, 2009 at 3:30 am

Posted in Uncategorized

9 Responses

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  1. Actually you have to be a little careful about interpreting averages. If the daily counts were rough 40% higher every day in the last month for Fedora, the 3 and 6 month average would be affected enough to be pulled upward.

    Take X as the baseline for the monthly average for the previous 5 months assuming they were constant. Take the last monthly average as (1+a)X.

    The 6 month average would then be (6+a)X/6
    The 3 month average would then be (3+a)X/3

    compare 1 and 3 months:
    1537*3/(3+a)=1840/(1+a)
    b=1537*3/1840=(3+a)/(1+a)
    a=0.32
    X=1386
    compare 1 and 6 months:
    1388*6/(6+a)=1840/(1+a)
    b=1388*6/1840=(6+a)/(1+a)
    a=0.42
    X=1297

    reasonable agreement here between calculated X and a values.

    What’s that say? It says that near time impulses in hit rates can make a noticable difference in the 6 month and 3 month averages as exposed by distrowatch. They are NOT historic measures. The only way we can really know is if distrowatch exposes more trending information than just these averages. They are a poor measure for trending purposes for just a single distribution’s interest level without getting into why they are unsuitable as a ranking metric.

    -jef

    jef spaleta

    June 26, 2009 at 4:58 am

  2. Distrowatch is not a metric!

    jorge

    June 26, 2009 at 7:22 am

    • I didn’t call it one. What is your point?

      mether

      June 26, 2009 at 9:18 am

  3. Personally, I went the other way.
    I’ve finally replaced Fedora with the new Ubuntu.

    I was a long time Fedora user, but I was finally fed up with each new Fedora release coming out with some major bug.

    This one was no exception: Anaconda constantly crashed at the point it tried to detect (pretty simple) partition layout on my laptop.

    Adriatic

    June 26, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    • There are good reasons for it. Fedora continues to push free and open source software true to it’s mission and Fedora is where innovative technology matures. The beauty of it is that you benefit regardless of the distribution you are using.

      For understanding the reasons behind installation issues, refer to

      http://www.happyassassin.net/2009/06/16/on-fedora-11-installation/

      Good luck on your journey.

      mether

      June 26, 2009 at 12:12 pm

  4. distrowatch is really not measurement. But, congrats for getting 2nd place!

    Kartik Mistry

    June 26, 2009 at 1:50 pm

  5. About a year back, I noticed that “training” institutes in Kolkata started to move from “Red Hat Linux” (Red Hat 9) to recent Fedora releases. Maybe this is happening elsewhere as well ?

    Sayamindu

    June 26, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    • Yes. India has been finally catching up to the fact that Fedora is a successor.

      mether

      June 26, 2009 at 4:32 pm

  6. Well I’m one of the growth stats. For me it was either (a) Fedora support for KDE getting better or (b) my perception of Fedora as a bad place for a good KDE going away – maybe a combination of the two. I was SuSE and then openSUSE for a long time but technical (early days of zypper, beagle) and political moves from Novell made me move away. Kubuntu was too buggy, I’ve never really liked Mandriva that much, Debian’s packages are too old (even in testing) and although I like Arch I prefer the easy life.

    Stu

    June 27, 2009 at 2:15 pm


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